Shaping the Future
Interesting article … tagline is that [scientific] uncertainty often becomes an excuse to ignore long-term problems … noting that “those who make decisions tend to stay focused on the next fiscal quarter, the next year, the next election” … well, yes, this is just the way it is … and the authors developed ideas how to overcome these shortcomings …
Today “the world [and organizations] faces a number of challenges, both long- and short-term, that are far from well understood […] these problems are simply too complex and contingent […] to make definitive predictions. In the presence of such deep uncertainty, the machinery of prediction and decision making seizes up. Traditional analytical approaches gravitate to the well-understood parts of the challenge and shy away from the rest.”.
The authors have “constructed rigorous, systematic methods for dealing with deep uncertainty. The basic idea is to liberate ourselves from the need for precise prediction by using the computer to help frame strategies that work well over a very wide range of plausible futures. Rather than seeking to eliminate uncertainty, we highlight it and then find ways to manage it.”
Looks a lot like computer-based scenario-planning … in conjunction with heuristics, aka rigorous, systematic methods … guiding the attention of decision-makers …
All in all an execellent read, offering useful insights for corporate strategy making and innovation management …
